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Breaking down your winrate
Written by: Hoodlincs · Date Added: 9 May, 2011 · Number of views: 6696
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So you want to crush 6max hold'em. Frequently thats going to mean aiming for 10bb/100+ which is definitely a winrate that is considered 'crushing' at any stakes.

Assuming you are playing quite a standard tag game, this is going to mean playing somewhere between 20% and 25% vpip (a stat from holdem manager for those who dont use a hud).

Therefore for every 100 hands you see at the table, you will only be playing 20-25 of them and therefore you winrate can be broken down further to 10bb/20-25.

If you are playing 20% of hands this would equate to 10/20 = 0.5bb/hand or, if you play 25% of hands 0.4bb/hand. You can now see how any small mistake is going to severely affect your winrate especially if its a big mistake that occurs on the turn or river when the pot is larger. you can also see how any small edge you can find will improve your winrate dramatically!

Additionally you can see how adding more hands to your preflop range will help to increase your profit assuming you can play them in a profitable manner. If you are a huge nit who plays 10% vpip he has to win at 1bb/hand, whilst if you quite laggy and playing 33% of hands you will only need to win at 0.3bb/hand to maintain the same winrate.

Whats my recommendation? Try to expand your ranges in some spots so you are playing more hands. Particularly from the cutoff and button where you can steal with a really wide range at small-stakes and get played back at so infrequently that you just show a huge profit by doing so. Additionally tighten up postflop – people arent bluff raising or making enough moves that you need to call them down lightly even if they are representing narrow ranges.

Game Selecting

This is super super important and I dont think people pay anywhere near enough attention to it. Everybody wants to be like durrrr and just crush the best in the business but the reality is that is difficult to beat good players and its even more difficult to beat them well.

We can represent this in very simple terms by thinking about where profit/loss comes from on a poker table.

Consider yourself at a table with 5 regulars. the regulars are on PTR and they are all marginal winners - well how are you going to make money there? you need to find an edge on them, and if you want to win at 10bb/100 then you will have to beat each of them for 2bb/100 on average. thats just not going to happen easily.

now, have you ever looked on PTR at a fish? if you have, you will frequently see they are losing at a crazy rate of something like -20BB/100 or more (remember ptr BB is 2bb or 1ptbb)

now those -40bb are going to the other players at the table. lets assume that the other 4 regulars are solid and you make up the 6. Assume all the regulars including you are breaking even vs each other.

what you have is that 40bb divided by the 5 regulars for a net winrate of 8bb/100 at that table. Now you havent even beaten the regs yet but there is still 4 of them sat here - if you can find an edge vs them your winrate is just going to be insane!

Finally, dont play when you are tilted. If you find yourself in a spot where you are auto piloting then you will start to destroy your winrate. If you play 20% vpip and you make 4 0.5bb errors every 100 hands then you have already lowered your winrate from 10bb to 6bb. And its really not hard to make a 0.5bb error!
Comments (4)
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Dan Page 30 Aug, 2011
Free Member Verified Member
Really good article, I never really thought about win-rate like that and it's eye-opening.
Kieran Barry 7 Aug, 2011
Free Member
Your "8bb/100" completely ignores the rake.

Let's say 50% of pots go to a flop, and that the average pot is 10bb (lowball). Then the rake is 0.5bb x 50 = 25bb/100 at any stake up to 3/6nl. The site takes 25bb, there are 15bb to be split among 5 players = 3bb/100.
C H 10 Jun, 2011
Free Member
... Conversely if I take a more aggressive approach, in appropriate situations ... Those bb won could certainly add up... You have given me something to think about here ... Ty
C H 10 Jun, 2011
Free Member
Nice post Jack ... I have been thinking alot about this lately when just calling with a 'pretty hand' oop ... Then just check folding when I miss , which will Obv be often ... These small amounts and the way I play them add up to alot of lost bb over time.
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