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ArticlesStudy TipsHow to properly analyse whether semi-bluffing by raising all in is profitable.
How to properly analyse whether semi-bluffing by raising all in is profitable.
Written by: Hoodlincs · Date Added: 26 Feb, 2011 · Number of views: 2943
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Assume our opponent is a regular. Something like 24/20 with 9% 3bet stats - What would seem to be a tough, good, aggressive player. The game is NL50.

$0.25/$0.50 (3 handed)
BTN ($50)
Hero SB ($50)
BB ($50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with
BTN folds, Hero raises $1.50, BB raises $4.50, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($9)
Hero checks, BB bets $5, Hero raises $45.50

First lets do some Pokerstove work here:

When we check-raise all in, the hands he calls with are TT-AA, AT off, T9s, T7s. (Generous range because his 3bet range may not include so many, or any, Tx hands obviously.

Pokerstove shows that when called by the above range we have 20.6% equity. And therefore we must lose 79.4%.

Pokerstove also shows that the hands he calls with when we check-raise all in represent 2.5% of starting hands (It actually represents more but of course we hold an ace and a queen, a T is also accounted for).

Therefore he calls us with 2.5% of hands and he 3bets roughly with about 9% of hands, so he calls our shove 2.5/9 = 28% of the time (in fact, he is probably 3betting the most when the SB opens into him, but for argument's sake we will use 9%).

What is the EV of getting the money in then?"

When we get it all in and win, we win the $9 currently in the pot + the $45.50 that we raise. When we lose, we just lose the $45.50 that we raised to. We can calculate our all in EV by multiplying the amount we win when we win the pot by the

EV all in = [(9+45.5)*0.206)] – [45.5*0.794) = 11.2 – 36.1 = -$24.9 every time we get it in.

"Right, so that's not good obviously – Getting it in so bad, how do we make money??"

Well here we need to do some more analysis...

When he folds we win $14 because there was $9 in the pot and he bet $5 but now folded. This is really important!

We already calculated that because of the range of hands he calls us with compared to range he 3bets with preflop, he will call us 28% of the time and fold 72%.

Therefore we can calculate the EV of check-shoving this flop quite easily by creating a formula. All we need to is compare the EV of when he folds with the EV of when he calls.

Since we know he folds 72% of the time and we win $14 when he does, we can use (0.72*14) to represent the part of the equation where he folds. And since we know he calls 28% of the time and we lose, on average, $24.9 when he does, we can use -(0.28*24.9) to represent the part of the equation where he calls.

Thus we can combine the two parts of the equation and we get:

EV of check-shoving = (0.72*14) – (0.28*24.9) = 10 – 7 = +$3.

so you win roughly $3/hand, or about 6bb/hand by check-shoving this flop. Whilst that might not sound a lot, in terms of winrate, adding 6bb/hand to your winrate in a couple of spots makes a dramatic difference, see this article for why. However, you can probably just accept right now that some people don't even win at 6bb/100, and here you are winning all those 6bb in 1 hand!

Of course you can adjust the figures in this post to be able to see how various factors affect the profitability of shoving - what about if we have AJ? what about if we have a backdoor flush draw? what about if he 3bets more/ less?

using the process and formula above will allow you to create any situation you like, providing you go to pokerstove and work out your equity + the amount of times he can call.

Does this mean you should always call a 3bet with AQ and check raise all in on these type of boards? NO! if you are playing someone who is quite tight and only re-raising about 6% in this spot, you will find it to be quite -ev to check raise all in here as so frequently you will get owned by an overpair. The idea of this article is to get you thinking about how you can apply maths away from the table to similar spots.

Thank you reading, please leave any comments and I will try to be as helpful as possible,

Jack.
Comments (4)
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suckk
Dean Neugebauer 7 Jun, 2011
Free Member
Great article, makes me think about finding more +EV spots
Randall G.
Randall Gonzales 9 May, 2011
Free Member Verified Member
nice article
sorry, thats fixed now. the link is here, although it wont be active you will need to copy/paste http://www.higherlevelpoker.com/article/37
j10s
Huy ! 9 May, 2011
Free Member Verified Member
"Whilst that might not sound a lot, in terms of winrate, adding 6bb/hand to your winrate in a couple of spots makes a dramatic difference, see (link) for why."

The only link in this article that I see is one linking to pokerstove?
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