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Down Goes Todd Frazier8217s Power
nuykjaue nuykjaue (nuykjaue)
Free Member · Join Date: 27 Dec, 2015 · Posts 177
18 Jul, 2017 · #1
Le s than 8 weeks ago, some of the games top players gathered in Cincinnati to sign up in the Midsummer Cla sic. The Matt Overton Jersey game featured Mike Troutbeing Mike Trout and Jacob deGromlooking like he was prepared to graduate to a better league. The night before, Major League Baseball presented a new Homer Derby format that was met with near universal approval. It certainly helped that hometown favorite, Todd Frazier, captured the title.
The derby was something of the emergence for Frazier. While he was coming off a 4.7 WAR season in 2014 and accumulated 11.1 WAR in 1,846 plate appearancesbetween 2011 and2014, the 29-year-old still carried one of those underrated while he plays in a small market weights around his neck. Frazier would be a excellent player before 2015; our ZiPS/Steamer blend gave him a 3 WAR projection based on average defense at third base, along with a 112 projected wRC+.
In your head, youre probably thinking that projection feels light. Frazier was riding in following a season just lacking 5 WAR and it was still on the right side of 30. But entering the entire year, Frazier were built with a 112 career wRC+ and had never topped 121. E sentially, every facet of his game profiled as average with the exception of his power. His power looked be excellent, but short of great. Then your first half of 2015 happened.
Todd FrazierYearPABB%K%ISOBABIPwRC+Pre-201518467.9%21.3%.193.2941122015 First Half3746.4%17.4%.301.282146Frazier were built with a monster first half, driven largely by a huge power breakout. He trimmed some strikeouts, but fewer walks along with a lower BABIP came along for the ride. The difference between Todd Frazier before and Todd Frazier during the first half of this season was more than 100 points of ISO. The main difference between Frazier at 110 wRC+ and 140 wRC+ is huge. Youre talking three wins. If Frazier was, in fact, a 140-150 wRC+ hitter, the Reds were located on an incredible group of corner infielders.
And then Frazier won the derby in impre sive fashion. I dont think anyone really takes the derby seriously like a test of objective in-game ability, but hitting a bunch of dingers within the span of a couple Mike McFarland Jersey of hours on national television certainly brings awarene s for your set of skills. Frazier was having a great start to the season, and then we found inside us the right situation to understand it. His power was among the early season stories.
This focus on his power led us down the traditional road to explaining and celebrating the breakout. Our Owen Watson wrote among those pieces in June, mentioning Fraziers evolution into a serious pull, fly ball hitter and its affect on his growing home-run total. If you return and browse the piece, theres not just a lot with which to argue. Owen makes a good case that Fraziers power spike is due to an over-all rise in fly-ball distance and Frank Gore Jersey better coverage of pitches up in the zone. Owen wisely discu ses our prime probability of some regre sion, however the other players who wind up getting cited within the article are Trout, Josh Donaldson, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puigand Andrew McCutchen.
In other words, Frazier looked like a man who was legitimately turning the power corner. Given the setup, you can see where this really is going, so lets stop beating around the bush:
Todd Frazier 2015YearPABB%K%ISOBABIPwRC+First Half3746.4%17.4%.301.282146Second Half1925.7%21.9%.157.25669Frazier cratered after the break. Im sure someone will want to attribute it to the derby performance thats why the Internet has comment sections however the idea of the derby hangover generally hasnt been supported by evidence. Another, easier to defend, narrative is the fact that Frazier is simply regre sing. He was playing above his head in the firsthalf and this is simply a correction. Thats a satisfying approach because Frazier had a 121 wRC+ in 2014 and it has a 120 wRC+ in 2015.
In theory, this may be a correct explanation. Its basically just as likely Frazier would hit 140 wRC+ because it could be for him to hit 80 wRC+ if you feel his true talent is about 110 wRC+. Presumably should you grab a sample of his plate appearances, youre going to have good stretches and bad, all balancing to roughly the growing season he is having. However that does kind of buy into a gamblers fallacy, as realistically we should have expected Frazier to experience to his true talent within Marshall Faulk Jersey the second half instead of playing below it.
Regardle s of how you need to frame the split, we are able to agree with the form from it. Fraziers outcome was better than we expected in the first half either because he improved or he got lucky and Fraziers outcome was worse than we expected in the second half either because he got worse or because he was unlucky. Thats not groundbreaking analysis, its just defining the situation.
Todd FrazierYearLD%GB%FB%Pull%Pre-201520.7%39.8%39.5%41.2%2015 First Half19.6%31.8%48.6%44.3%2015 Second Half18.5%40.0%41.5%49.6%The first thing to notice is that while part of the first half story for Frazier was the increase in fly balls, and pulled balls, the trajectory numbers have returned to normal. Hes hitting fly balls at his lower, pre-2015 rate, but hes also pulling the ball more than ever before. The upshot of this is more pulled ground balls, and pulled grounds balls arent an excellent great way to hit for power.
From a discipline standpoint, A.Q. Shipley Jersey hes been more aggre sive against a generally lower number of strikes:
Todd FrazierYearSwing%Contact%Zone%Pre-201548.8%75.2%45.3%2015 First Half51.3%78.4%45.9%2015 Second Half55.4%77.4%43.9%Hes swinging more often and making no morecontact per swing, meaning that you've more swinging strikes. Add that to the rise in ground balls and you dont have a formula for power. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this for me is when pitchers are adapting to Frazier. Theyre challenging him with more heat:
Todd FrazierYearHard%Breaking%Offspeed%Pre-201561%29%10%2015 First Half60%30%10%2015 Second Half66%24%10%SOURCE: Brooks BaseballI think you are able to brush-off a lot of first half/second half differences with sample size and random variation, but this one really stands apart. Pitchers are trading breaking balls for fastballs, and contains Frazier off his game. Its difficult to trace the causation, but the added ground balls came mainly on pitches around the inner third, especially the lower inner third. He was hitting those pitches in the air earlier this year and has started allowing this to continue them because the break. Pitchers are throwing more fastballs and fewer strikes during the time as well, but its hard to piece those facts together in a manner that means they are seem like a clear cause and effect.
For some reason, Frazier has been le s able to get those low and inside pitches into the air, and also the insufficient balls in the air has played a sizable role in his more limited production. Theres also a whiff i sue, but thats generally the story. Its entirely po sible that this is actually the result of more fastballs overall, or maybe Frazier is nursing an injury that isnt publicly known. You never know, maybe the derby did impact his swing. Its unlikely, but its le s if its impo sible.
Unfortunately, we dont get to know the real cause. Thats beyond our field of vision. Frazier had achievement for some months and has had bad results for two months. We can observe pretty clearly in which the problems exist, but we cant do even more than theorize about their origins.
Baseball is a game of adjustments. We would have liked to Joe Reitz Jersey think the fly ball-pull power Frazier was an adjustment he earned to become a power hitter. The problem we encounter pretty happens to be the league adjusts back. Even when luck played only a small role in this entire story, changes arent guaranteed to be permanent. Injuries can occur, players can fall out of their mechanics or their opponents can implement a new strategy that neutralizes the initial change.
We wish to believe the pre-break Frazier may be the real Frazier and that this is a simple slump or bad luck. In reality, the actual Frazier isvery similar to the Frazier we knew before 2015. He'd good raw energy that can play up over certain stretches, but he is able to become aggre sive. Together with his contact profile, that can result in prolonged slumps. This is extremely likely who Frazier is.
Thats not to diminish him like a player, because hes certainly extremely valuable. Yet it should lead us to temper our expectations about player breakouts. We shouldnt just exercise caution due to the noise of baseball statistics (I believe most serious fans are very good only at that), but also because breakouts are notable precisely since they're hard to sustain. If it wereeasy to include more power to your game, more hitters would get it done. But baseball, like life, is all about trade-offs. Frazier altered his approach during the first half, but that opened him as much as other potential problems thatare popping up within the second half. Hell make another adjustment and also the league will make theirs, and on and on it'll go. Clearly hes talented enough to for that good to counterbalance the bad, but Frazier is a great reminder that judginga player by their finest or worst stretches is T.Y. McGill Jersey a good way to misjudge a person.
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